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7.  Conclusions and Implications

The economic analysis of CVISN from a motor carrier perspective indicates significant, near-immediate financial benefits to carriers from taking part in electronic (web-based) credentials administration, and substantial benefits to carriers from enrolling their trucks in electronic screening programs or partnerships.  The study targeted large motor carriers in states known to be active in CVISN.  Almost all of the responding companies (97 percent) participate in electronic credentials administration, and a strong majority of responding companies (75 percent) use some kind of transponder-based preclearance or e-screening technology in their trucks.

7.1  Summary of Findings

The following key findings emerged from the economic and qualitative analysis.  All conclusions reflect the information collected from a selection of motor carriers who participated in telephone interviews for this business case.

Electronic Credentialing

Electronic Screening

General Conclusions

7.2  Implications for Future Research

By design, CVISN technologies have historically tended to be adopted first by larger trucking companies, which are in a better position to realize economies of scale from the deployment of computer-based information technologies and intelligent transportation systems focused on interstate operation.  Future research could explore the ways in which CVISN technologies could be adapted to better meet the business needs of smaller motor carrier fleets and owner-operators.  These smaller companies might, for example, conduct credentialing transactions only once per year for fewer than 20 power units, so it may be more difficult for them to justify the time required to convert from paper-based to electronic credentialing methods.

This business case has provided an outline of the reasons—both pro and con—that carriers use when deciding whether to adopt CVISN technologies for their companies.  Survey respondents may have many motives, beyond the reasons given in a brief telephone interview, for the complex business decisions they make.  Future market-type research could attempt to tease out the underlying business principles and practices that attract some companies to new technology for safety, administration, and operations, while causing other companies to delay their adoption.  Results of this research could be used in planning ITS deployments in both the public and private sectors to match carriers’ business needs, and in representing the service offerings through outreach, education, and information exchange intended to appeal to the motor carrier industry.  The results may also be useful in refining services offered by states and vendors in plans for Expanded CVISN, the FMCSA’s Comprehensive Safety Analysis (CSA) 2010 initiative, vehicle-infrastructure integration (VII), Electronic Freight Management, Wireless Roadside Safety Inspections for Trucks and Buses, and other initiatives.

CVISN technologies may eventually be further integrated and coordinated with other services and necessary on-board equipment, such as electronic cargo seals, hazmat tracking systems, homeland security and customs enforcement systems, and emission monitors.  Significant benefits may be found in capitalizing on the synergies of state and federal programs, coupled with private-sector telematics and mobile resource management.

State transportation, public safety, and law enforcement officials can use the results of this business case to aid in planning the kinds of credentialing and screening programs to make available to motor carriers operating within their states, and to help decide which features or services should be included in future modifications of existing ITS initiatives such as CVISN.  

Federal transportation officials and commercial vehicle operations analysts can use the results of this business case when deciding which technologies show the greatest promise of providing tangible benefits to the motor carrier industry, relative to the costs companies incur in deploying  and operating such technologies.  The industry perspective in turn feeds into a fuller understanding of how ITS can benefit society in general, through increased transportation safety, efficiency, and mobility.

An area of future research worth consideration is the attitude of the motor carrier industry toward economic payback for technology investments.  The results of this analysis suggest that the payback period for moving to electronic credentialing is very short—less than 1 month.  The payback period for initial investments in electronic screening is also quite short at less than 1 year, though much of the expense is tied to recurrent monthly fees paid to electronic screening partnerships and programs.  These results indicate that these technologies are extremely cost beneficial to motor carriers. 

Motor carriers, however, may have different expectations relating to payback periods when making decisions to invest in technologies.  Thus, it would be extremely useful to gauge these expectations through motor carrier surveys designed to construct payback period curves, where the cumulative share of the motor carrier industry would be charted on the x-axis against payback period expectations on the y-axis.  The point of this exercise would be determine what share of the industry would adopt a new technology given a 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, or 2-year payback period, etc.  Results in other industries suggest that most consumers generally require payback periods of no more than 1 to 2 years to make the investment.  If payback is delayed until  the third year, there are few consumers who would be likely to invest in the technology.  When considering private-sector investments in CVISN, it would be instructive to understand the industry’s expectations in order to place the findings of the business case in some context.

Other business factors affecting adoption of CVISN technologies may also come into play, including the need for education and outreach to the industry, so that more carriers know about the technologies (and the benefits) available to them in the states where they operate.  Many motor carriers work on very narrow profit margins, and some may tend to focus on the cost side of the technology deployment equation.  Some motor carriers may not recognize the value of the future benefits of technology to their particular operation, for example, the time that can be saved through electronic credentialing and screening, and the monetary value of this time savings.

In terms of research methodology, future work in the area of economics of ITS should focus on improved methods of surveying and obtaining real-world business information from a random, representative sample of motor carrier companies.  Judging from the low rate of response (approximately 14 percent), the industry representatives contacted for this study appeared to be reluctant to take part in an unannounced, ad hoc telephone survey, despite repeated callback attempts and voice mail/e-mail messages left with carriers, in an attempt to increase the response rate.

Gaining buy-in among the industry in advance of survey initiation—with reassurance, for example, that information sharing will not harm any one company’s competitive position—might help analysts collect meaningful data from a larger population of motor carriers and might lead to more representative and significant conclusions.

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