Working Paper
National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Updated with 2005 Deployment Data
July 2006
PDF Version 933KB
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Technical Report Documentation Page
1. Report No. FHWA-OP-06- |
2. Government Accession No. |
3. Recipient's Catalog No. |
4. Title and Subtitle Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Updated with 2005 Deployment Data, 5th Revision |
5. Report Date July 2006 |
6. Performing Organization Code |
7. Author(s) Barbara L. Staples |
8. Performing Organization Report No. |
9. Performing Organization Name and Address |
10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) |
11. Contract or Grant No. DTFH61-05-D-00002 |
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address |
13. Type of Report and Period Covered |
14. Sponsoring Agency Code HOIT |
15. Supplementary Notes Joseph I. Peters – Task Manager |
16. Abstract The purpose of this report, "Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Updated with 2005 Deployment Data," is to update the estimates of the costs remaining to fully deploy Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) infrastructure elements in the 75 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. Updates to this working paper coincide with the results from tracking the deployment of the integrated ITS infrastructure in the United States. To date, deployment tracking results are available for 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005. The initial version of the working paper (dated September 1999) was written to update the FHWA 1995 cost estimate and to develop estimates of the investments that must still be made using the 1997 deployment tracking results. Deployment tracking results from 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2004 were incorporated into the first, second, third, and fourth revisions of this paper (dated August 2000, July 2001, October 2003, and October 2005, respectively) with the majority of the updates contained within the addendum to the original document. With the 2005 deployment tracking data available, the national deployment cost estimate can be updated again. As with the fourth revision, the new cost estimate is documented here as a standalone report. Details on the methodology for developing estimates, and how costs and quantities were derived can be found in the original and previous three versions of the working paper. The results show that progress is being made toward deployment of ITS infrastructure elements. Over the past eight years the percent of capital expended has more than doubled. Approximately 35% of the needed capital costs, or $206 million has been expended per large metropolitan area through 2005. This value represents an additional 20.3% increase from the 1997 expenditures of 14.7%. The total national capital cost expended for the 75 largest metropolitan areas is $15.5 billion. The total national capital cost/investment remaining is $28.7 billion. |
17. Key Word evaluation/program assessment, cost, cost estimates, ITS costs, national costs |
18. Distribution Statement No restrictions. |
19. Security Classif. (of this report) Unclassified |
20. Security Classif. (of this page) Unclassified |
21. Nunmber of Pages 22 |
22. Price N/A |
Introduction
The purpose of this report, "Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Updated with 2005 Deployment Data," is to update the estimates of the costs remaining to fully deploy Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) infrastructure elements in the 75 largest metropolitan areas in the United States.
Updates to this working paper coincide with the results from tracking the deployment of the integrated ITS infrastructure in the United States. To date, deployment tracking results are available for 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005. The initial version [1] of the working paper (dated September 1999) was written to update the FHWA 1995 cost estimate and to develop estimates of the investments that must still be made using the 1997 deployment tracking results. Deployment tracking results from 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2004 were incorporated into the first [2], second [3] , third [4], and fourth [5] revisions of this paper (dated August 2000, July 2001, October 2003, and October 2005, respectively) with the majority of the updates contained within the addendum to the original document. With the 2005 deployment tracking data now available, the national deployment cost estimate can be updated again. As with the fourth revision, the new cost estimate is documented as a standalone report. Details on the methodology for developing estimates, and how costs and quantities were derived can be found in the original and previous three versions of the working paper.
The results show that progress is being made toward deployment of ITS infrastructure elements. Approximately 35% of the needed capital costs, or $206 million has been expended per large metropolitan area through 2005. This value represents an additional 20.3% increase from the 1997 expenditures of 14.7% and a 2.4% increase over the last year. The total national capital cost expended for the 75 largest metropolitan areas is $15.5 billion. The total national capital cost/investment remaining to fully deploy ITS infrastructure elements is $28.7 billion.
Background
The initial working paper was prepared to provide new estimates of the costs to fully deploy Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) infrastructure elements in the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. It built upon estimates that were distributed in June 1995 by Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) [6] . In building upon these 1995 cost estimates, changes were made to the cost elements, and updates were made to the unit cost values and quantities for metropolitan areas. These modifications were based on new sources of ITS cost estimates and were necessary to establish a base case for estimating the needed ITS investment. Estimates of the costs to reach full deployment were calculated and presented in detailed cost tables in the report. The base case is assumed to represent full deployment-the amount of ITS that could be deployed.
Three significant changes were made to the 1995 cost elements. First, cost elements were added to the existing FHWA list. Second, cost elements were disaggregated to make the physical and operational makeup of the cost elements clearer. For example, a variable message sign element was disaggregated into the sign itself and supporting structure. Third, cost elements that were no longer deemed applicable were deleted. Since 1999, no modifications have been made to the cost elements. Consequently, newer technology applications such as variable speed limit systems, road weather information systems, and pedestrian detection/safety systems are not included in the cost element list.
As part of updating the cost values, Mitretek decided to restructure the groupings of the elements. A major reason for this had to do with the way that freeway and arterial-related elements were placed in the original FHWA list. Surveillance and communications elements for both freeways and arterials were grouped together. Separating these elements makes clearer what cost elements should be introduced for a new corridor, or area-wide project.
Accounting for or addressing cost savings as a result of integration or bundling of technologies was not a major factor in how the base case estimate was developed. However, the cost associated with center-to-center design and integration is a component of the base case cost estimate. Furthermore, technologies deployed for one specific purpose may also be used in support of other applications. For example, CCTV cameras and supporting infrastructure, while primarily deployed to provide freeway surveillance and support incident detection and response, may also be used as a resource for traveler information.
The base case cost estimate is the cost of a generic metropolitan area for a given set of deployment elements and quantities at a given point in time and does not address the incremental costs of phasing in system components.
Updates to Capital Costs Expenditures (Changes to Market Penetration)
In calculating estimates of the remaining costs to deploy ITS infrastructure, it is important to recognize and account for previous ITS investments. To account for these previous investments, the amount of market penetration for the various cost elements for the current time period must be known. The 1997 deployment percentages [7] were factored into the initial working paper cost tables to produce estimates of the percentages of the needed capital investment that had already been spent and subtracted from the total needed capital to provide estimates of the investment still to be made. ITS deployment data from 1999 [8], 2000 [9], 2002 [10], and 2004[11] were used to update those estimates in the first, second, third, and fourth revision of this working paper, respectively. With 2005 ITS deployment data[12] now available, those estimates can be updated again.
The same methodology used to develop the 1997 deployment estimates on future national ITS costs was used for this 2005 update with the following exceptions:
- The 2005 cost estimate is calculated for large metropolitan areas only, specifically 78 of the largest metropolitan areas. The initial working paper included a deployment estimate for a medium metropolitan area. Estimates of market penetration were developed using 1997 deployment percentages for medium and small size metropolitan areas. The 1997 deployment report divided the 78 largest metropolitan areas (see footnote 21 and table 2-2 in the original working paper) into three size classes. A methodology was developed to use deployment data from the three class sizes to estimate the capital cost expended through 1997 for generic medium and small size metropolitan areas. Because 1997 and 2005 deployment percentages are from different sources of measurement (extrapolated and direct, respectively), only cost estimates for large metropolitan areas will be calculated for this update.
- The 1997 cost estimate did not account for any deployment of Traveler Information Centers; however, the 2005 and four previous cost estimates do account for deployment of these centers. Traveler Information Centers were not included in the 1997 estimate because there was no single indicator that adequately represented deployment of Traveler Information Centers. Today there are many examples of traveler information "centers" in the U.S.; to not account for them in the 2005 cost expenditures would present an inaccurate cost estimate. The indicator, "Freeway conditions disseminated to the public," is used to measure the deployment of these centers.
- The 2005 cost estimate separately accounts for deployment of lane control and monitoring equipment, and miles controlled by ramp meters (Freeway Management at the Roadside). Under 1997 deployment tracking, lane control or ramp metering was tracked as a single component indicator. With lane control and ramp metering tracked separately beginning with the 1999 survey, these component percentages have been incorporated into the cost estimate accordingly.
The 2005 deployment percentages can be factored into the cost tables to produce estimates of the percentages of the needed capital investment that has already been spent, and thus can be subtracted from the total needed capital to provide estimates of the investments that must still be made to reach full deployment. The effects on the detailed cost estimates of using the 2005 deployment survey data are shown in table 1. The columns in this table are defined as follows:
- ITS ELEMENTS and CAPITAL COSTS LARGE - are reproduced from the initial version of the working paper. CAPITAL COSTS LARGE represents the estimated investment needed in order to achieve full deployment for a large metropolitan area.
- % DEPLOYED BY 2005 LARGE - have been taken from the figures in reference 12.
- CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '05 LARGE - are the product of the CAPITAL COSTS LARGE and % DEPLOYED BY 2005 LARGE . This column gives the estimated dollar expenditure on ITS metropolitan deployment through 2005.
- REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE - provides estimate of the remaining investment needed for large metropolitan areas.
The results show that progress is being made toward deployment of ITS infrastructure elements. Approximately 35% of the needed capital costs, or $206 million, has been expended per large metropolitan area through 2005. The national summary results are reported based on large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of 75. The total national capital cost expended for the 75 largest metropolitan areas is $15.5 billion. The total national capital cost/investment remaining is $28.7 billion.
Table 2 presents detailed estimates based on 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005 deployment tracking results. In comparing the new summary cost estimates, approximately 35% of the needed capital costs for ITS for large metropolitan areas was expended through 2005. This is an increase of 20.3% from the 1997 expenditures of 14.7% which represents an overall average increase of approximately 2.5% per year. The percent of capital expended has more than doubled over the past eight years. Accounting for expenditures through 1997, national capital costs remaining for the largest 75 metropolitan areas were estimated at $37.7 billion. The same estimate accounting for expenditures through 1999 is approximately $35.9 billion, through 2000 is approximately $35.3 billion, through 2002 is approximately $32.3 billion, and through 2004 is approximately $29.8 billion.
From 1997 to 1999, this equates to capital expenditures of approximately $1 billion per year, and approximately $0.6 billion from 1999 to 2000. Capital expenditures from 2000 to 2002 are approximately $3 billion; this equates to about $1.5 billion per year-the largest annual increase to date. Capital expenditures from 2002 to 2004 are roughly $2.6 billion-the second highest increase-approximately $1.3 billion per year. From 2004 to 2005, expenditures increased approximately $1.1 billion which is the largest increase of the two back-to-back survey years.
By comparing the estimates across fiscal years, it can be determined which cost elements have the largest reduction in future costs due to taking into account the investments that have already occurred. However, since some of the estimates in each of the tables are only for the cost element groups, the "group level" will be used for this reporting. The largest increases in expenditures from 1997 to 2005 are 37% in Emergency Response Centers, 37% in Emergency Services Equipment, and 43% in Electronic Toll Collection System. Note that the Electronic Toll Collection system expenditure was down by 2% from that in 2004 due to a lower number of agencies responding to the 2005 survey. These same three groupings also had the largest increases for 1997 to 2002, and again for 1997 to 2004. When comparing increases from 2004 to 2005, much smaller amounts of increase are noticed; the greatest increase being Traveler Information Center at 10%.
Table 1
Effect of Factoring in 2005 Deployment Estimates on Future National ITS Metropolitan Infrastructure Costs
| ITS ELEMENTS | CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) | % DEPLOYED BY 2005 LARGE | CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '05 LARGE ($K) | REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
||||
Loop Detectors per signal per approach lane |
$33,000 |
36% |
$11,880 |
|
Other arterial loop detectors |
$3,960 |
36% |
$1,426 |
|
Overhead Point Detectors [NEW] |
- |
36% |
$0 |
|
Processor (170 series), 1 per direction per half mile (Arterials) [NEW] |
$62,500 |
36% |
$25,500 |
|
CCTV Cameras per signalized intersection |
$6,250 |
5% |
$313 |
|
CCTV pole and foundation [NEW] |
$4,500 |
5% |
$225 |
|
Video Image Processing/intersection |
$10,000 |
5% |
$500 |
|
AVI equip. to identify priority veh./intersection [NEW] |
$82,500 |
- |
$0 |
|
AVL equip (to supplement GPS)/site [NEW] |
$325 |
- |
$0 |
|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
$203,535 |
- |
$36,843 |
$166,692 |
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
||||
Loop Detectors per fwy lane per half mile |
$7,040 |
38% |
$2,675 |
|
Overhead Point Detectors [NEW] |
$0 |
38% |
$0 |
|
Data Station (Fwy), 1 per half mile [NEW] |
$20,000 |
38% |
$7,600 |
|
CCTV Cameras per freeway mile |
$10,000 |
35% |
$3500 |
|
CCTV pole and foundation [NEW] |
$7,200 |
35% |
$2,520 |
|
Emissions & Environmental Sensors |
$400 |
|||
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
$44,640 |
- |
$16,295 |
$28,345 |
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
||||
Twisted-pair to Signals (per intersection) |
$37,500 |
53% |
$19,875 |
|
Wireless radio [NEW] |
$0 |
4% |
$0 |
|
Leased line to signals [NEW] |
$0 |
53% |
$0 |
|
Leased line to video [NEW] |
$0 |
5% |
$0 |
|
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
$37,500 |
- |
$19,875 |
$17,625 |
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
||||
Fiber-Optic Cable/ freeway mile |
$106,000 |
35% |
$37,100 |
|
Fiber-optic hub - 1 per 5 mi. of fiber [NEW] |
$0 |
35% |
$0 |
|
Leased line to video [NEW] |
$0 |
35% |
$0 |
|
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
$106,000 |
- |
$37,100 |
$68,900 |
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
||||
Central Computer System (Closed Loop) NEW |
$0 |
|||
Central Computer System (Distributed) NEW |
$0 |
|||
Master controllers for distributed system (1 per 25 intersections) [NEW] |
$1000 |
|||
Signal controller replacement per intersection [NEW] |
$0 |
|||
Signal controller upgrade (per intersection) |
$12,500 |
|||
Signal Preemption: Transit, Emergency Vehicle, RR [NEW] |
$250 |
|||
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
$13,750 |
53% |
$7,288 |
$6,463 |
FREEWAY MANAGEMENT @ ROADSIDE |
||||
HOV lane control & monitoring equip. |
$2,500 |
9% |
$225 |
|
Ramp Meter Systems (per interchange) |
$14,000 |
21% |
$2,940 |
|
FREEWAY MANAGEMENT @ ROADSIDE |
$16,500 |
$3,165 |
$13,335 |
|
TRAVELER INFORMATION @ ROADSIDE/SITE |
||||
Full Matrix VMS & Controllers (without structure) |
$7,000 |
|||
Overhead Structure[Separated out] |
$10,500 |
|||
Hybrid VMS with structure (Arterials) |
$2,000 |
|||
Fixed HAR & Controllers |
$200 |
|||
Callboxes: each direction per half-mile |
$8,000 |
|||
Kiosks |
$4,200 |
|||
TRAVELER INFORMATION @ ROADSIDE/SITE |
$31,900 |
46% |
$14,674 |
$17,226 |
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
||||
Portable VMS |
$600 |
48% |
$288 |
|
Portable HAR |
$450 |
48% |
$216 |
|
Special Pickup Trucks (w. Dyn. Route Guidance) |
$2,000 |
18% |
$360 |
|
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
48% |
$0 |
|
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
$3,050 |
$864 |
$2,186 |
|
TRANSP. MGMT. CTRS |
||||
Software (various)/TMC |
$600 |
|||
Computers & Hardware/TMC |
$680 |
|||
Software (various)/TMC |
$220 |
|||
Facilities & Communications/TMC |
$4,000 |
|||
O & M Personnel/TMC |
$0 |
|||
TRANSP. MGMT. CTRS |
$30,000 |
38% |
$11,400 |
$18,600 |
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
||||
Computers and Hardware |
$102 |
|||
Software (various) |
$300 |
|||
Facilities & Communication (stand-alone) |
$4,000 |
|||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
|||
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
$4,402 |
38% |
$1,673 |
$2,729 |
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
||||
Computers & Hardware |
$400 |
|||
Software (various) |
$70 |
|||
Facilities & Communications (stand-alone) |
$4,000 |
|||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
|||
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
$4,470 |
80% |
$3,576 |
$894 |
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
||||
Cellular radio, comm. services per vehicle |
$990 |
|||
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
$990 |
80% |
$792 |
$198 |
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
||||
Computers & Hardware |
$340 |
|||
Software (various) |
$120 |
|||
Facilities & Communication (stand-alone |
$4,000 |
|||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
|||
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
$4,460 |
54% |
$2,408 |
$2,052 |
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
||||
Cellular radio, display, etc per vehicle |
$12,600 |
32% |
$4,032 |
|
AVI Transponder (on Signal Priority routes) [NEW] |
$0 |
$0 |
||
In-vehicle AVL equip. per vehicle [NEW] |
$0 |
54% |
$0 |
|
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
$12,600 |
$4,032 |
$8,568 |
|
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYSTEM |
||||
In Transit Mgmt Center |
||||
Central Computer System |
$3,000 |
64% |
$1,920 |
|
Training & Documentation |
$80 |
64% |
$51 |
|
At ticketing site |
||||
Station Controller [DELETE] |
$0 |
|||
Ticket Office Machine & Validator |
$2,440 |
64% |
$1,562 |
|
Ticket Vending Machines |
$30,000 |
64% |
$19,200 |
|
Turnstile [DELETE] |
$0 |
|||
On Transit Vehicles |
||||
Bus Farebox
| $14,000 |
64% |
$8,960 |
|
Smart Card |
$6,000 |
23% |
$1,380 |
|
Sys Engineering. Etc. [MOVED] |
||||
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYSTEM |
$55,520 |
$33,073 |
$22,447 |
|
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYSTEM |
||||
AVI Plaza Computer equipment |
$2,600 |
|||
Manual AVI (per lane) |
$2,190 |
|||
Automatic AVI (per lane) |
$1,050 |
|||
Manual Automatic AVI (per lane) |
$1,875 |
|||
AVI Dedicated (per lane) |
$480 |
|||
Express AVI (per lane) |
$480 |
|||
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYSTEM |
$8,675 |
79% |
$6,853 |
$1,822 |
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
||||
TMC, TIC, EMC, Transit MC |
$5,400 |
53% |
$2,862 |
|
Electronic Fare Payment Sys |
$5,400 |
64% |
$3,456 |
|
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
$10,800 |
$6,318 |
$4,482 |
|
TOTAL PER LARGE METRO AREA |
$588,792 |
$206,229 |
$382,563 |
|
Percent Capital Cost Expended Through 2005: |
35.0% | |||
NUMBER OF LARGE METRO AREAS: |
75 | |||
| ($B) | ||||
TOTAL NATIONAL CAPITAL COST FOR ALL LARGE METRO AREAS |
$44.2 | |||
TOTAL NATIONAL COST EXPENDED BY 2005 FOR ALL LARGE METRO AREAS |
$15.5 | |||
TOTAL NATIONAL CAPITAL COST REMAINING FOR ALL LARGE METRO AREAS |
$28.7 |
Table 2
Effect of Factoring in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2005 Deployment Estimates on Future National ITS Metropolitan Infrastructure Costs
ITS ELEMENTS |
CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
% DEPLOYED BY 1997 LARGE |
CAPITAL COST EXPENDED BY '97 LARGE ($K) |
REMAINING CAPITAL COST LARGE ($K) |
% DEPLOYED BY 1999 LARGE |
CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '99 LARGE ($K) |
REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
% DEPLOYED BY 2000 LARGE |
CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '00 LARGE ($K) |
REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
% DEPLOYED BY 2002 LARGE |
CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '02 LARGE ($K) |
REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
% DEPLOYED BY 2004 LARGE |
CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '04 LARGE ($K) |
REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
% DEPLOYED BY 2005 LARGE |
CAPITAL COSTS EXPENDED BY '05 LARGE ($K) |
REMAINING CAPITAL COSTS LARGE ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
|||||||||||||||||||
Loop Detectors per signal per approach lane |
$33,000 |
5% |
$1,650 |
9% |
$2,970 |
16% |
$5280 |
27% |
$8,910 |
34% |
$11,220 |
36% |
$11,880 |
||||||
Other arterial loop detectors |
$3,960 |
5% |
$198 |
9% |
$356 |
16% |
$634 |
27% |
$1,069 |
34% |
$1,346 |
36% |
$1,426 |
||||||
Overhead Point Detectors [NEW] |
5% |
9% |
16% |
27% |
34% |
36% |
|||||||||||||
Processor (170 series), 1 per direction per half mile (Arterials) [NEW] |
$62,500 |
5% |
$3,125 |
9% |
$5,625 |
16% |
$10,000 |
27% |
$16,875 |
34% |
$21,250 |
36% |
$22,500 |
||||||
CCTV Cameras per signalized intersection |
$6,250 |
1% |
$63 |
1% |
$63 |
1% |
$63 |
4% |
$250 |
5% |
$313 |
5% |
$313 |
||||||
CCTV pole and foundation [NEW] |
$4,500 |
1% |
$45 |
1% |
$45 |
1% |
$45 |
4% |
$180 |
5% |
$225 |
5% |
$225 |
||||||
Video Image Processing/intersection |
$10,000 |
1% |
$100 |
1% |
$100 |
1% |
$100 |
4% |
$400 |
5% |
$500 |
5% |
$500 |
||||||
AVI equip. to identify priority veh./intersection [NEW] |
$82,500 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|||||||||||||
AVL equip (to supplement GPS)/site [NEW] |
$825 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|||||||||||||
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
$203,535 |
$5,181 |
$198,355 |
$9,159 |
$194,376 |
$16,121 |
$187,414 |
$27,684 |
$175,851 |
$34,854 |
$168,681 |
$36,843 |
$166,692 |
||||||
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
|||||||||||||||||||
Loop Detectors per fwy lane per half mile |
$7,040 |
17% |
$1,197 |
22% |
$1,549 |
22% |
$1,549 |
30% |
$2,112 |
35% |
$2,464 |
38% |
$2,675 |
||||||
Overhead Point Detectors [NEW] |
$0 |
17% |
$0 |
22% |
$0 |
22% |
$0 |
30% |
$0 |
35% |
$0 |
38% |
$0 |
||||||
Data Station (Fwy), 1 per half mile [NEW] |
$20,000 |
17% |
$3,400 |
22% |
$4,400 |
22% |
$4,400 |
30% |
$6,000 |
35% |
$7,000 |
38% |
$7,600 |
||||||
CCTV Cameras per freeway mile |
$10,000 |
9% |
$900 |
14% |
$1,400 |
12% |
$1,200 |
22% |
$2,200 |
32% |
$3,200 |
35% |
$3,500 |
||||||
CCTV pole and foundation [NEW] |
$7,200 |
9% |
$648 |
14% |
$1,008 |
12% |
$864 |
22% |
$1,584 |
32% |
$2,304 |
35% |
$2,520 |
||||||
Emissions & Environmental Sensors |
$400 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
||||||||||||
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
$44,640 |
$6,145 |
$38,495 |
$8,357 |
$36,283 |
$8,013 |
$36,627 |
$11,896 |
$32,744 |
$14,968 |
$29,672 |
$16,295 |
$28,345 |
||||||
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
|||||||||||||||||||
Twisted-pair to Signals (per intersection) |
$37,500 |
46% |
$17,250 |
46% |
$17,250 |
49% |
$18,375 |
48% |
$18,000 |
50% |
$18,750 |
53% |
$19,875 |
||||||
Wireless radio [NEW |
$0 |
43% |
$0 |
20% |
$0 |
90% |
$0 |
16% |
$0 |
20% |
$0 |
4% |
$0 |
||||||
Leased line to signals [NEW] |
$0 |
46% |
$0 |
46% |
$0 |
49% |
$0 |
48% |
$0 |
50% |
$0 |
53% |
$0 |
||||||
Leased line to video [NEW] |
$0 |
1% |
$0 |
1% |
$0 |
1% |
$0 |
4% |
$0 |
5% |
$0 |
5% |
$0 |
||||||
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
$37,500 |
$17,250 |
$20,250 |
$17,250 |
$20,250 |
$18,375 |
$19,125 |
$18,000 |
$19,500 |
$18,750 |
$18,750 |
$19,875 |
$17,625 |
||||||
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
|||||||||||||||||||
Fiber-Optic Cable/ freeway mile |
$106,000 |
9% |
$9,540 |
14% |
$14,840 |
12% |
$12,720 |
22% |
$23,320 |
32% |
$33,920 |
35% |
$37,100 |
||||||
Fiber-optic hub - 1 per 5 mi. of fiber [NEW] |
$0 |
9% |
$0 |
14% |
$0 |
12% |
$0 |
22% |
$0 |
32% |
$0 |
35% |
$0 |
||||||
Leased line to video [NEW] |
$0 |
9% |
$0 |
14% |
$0 |
12% |
$0 |
22% |
$0 |
32% |
$0 |
35% |
$0 |
||||||
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
$106,000 |
$9,540 |
$96,460 |
$14,840 |
$91,160 |
$12,720 |
$93,280 |
$23,320 |
$82,680 |
$33,920 |
$72,080 |
$37,100 |
$68,900 |
||||||
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
|||||||||||||||||||
Central Computer System (Closed Loop) NEW |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
Central Computer System (Distributed) NEW |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
Master controllers for distributed system (1 per 25 intersections) [NEW] |
$1,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
Signal controller replacement per intersection [NEW] |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
Signal controller upgrade (per intersection) |
$12,500 |
||||||||||||||||||
Signal Preemption: Transit, Emergency Vehicle, RR [NEW] |
$250 |
||||||||||||||||||
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
$13,750 |
46% |
$6,325 |
$7,425 |
46% |
$6,325 |
$7,425 |
49% |
$6,738 |
$7,013 |
48% |
$6,600 |
$7,150 |
50% |
$6,875 |
$6,875 |
53% |
$7,288 |
$6,463 |
FREEWAY MANAGEMENT @ ROADSIDE |
|||||||||||||||||||
HOV lane control & monitoring equip. |
$2,500 |
$0 |
5% |
$125 |
4% |
$100 |
7% |
$175 |
7% |
$175 |
9% |
$225 |
|||||||
Ramp Meter Systems (per interchange) |
$14,000 |
13% |
$1,820 |
8% |
$1,120 |
8% |
$1,120 |
8% |
$1,120 |
8% |
$1,260 |
21% |
$2,940 |
||||||
FREEWAY MANAGEMENT @ ROADSIDE |
$16,500 |
13% |
$1,820 |
$14,680 |
$1,245 |
$15,255 |
$1,120 |
$15,280 |
$1,295 |
$15,205 |
$1,435 |
$15,065 |
$3,165 |
$13,335 |
|||||
TRAVELER INFORMATION @ ROADSIDE/SITE |
|||||||||||||||||||
Full Matrix VMS & Controllers (without structure) |
$7,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
Overhead Structure[Separated out] |
$10,500 |
||||||||||||||||||
Hybrid VMS with structure (Arterials) |
$2,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
Fixed HAR & Controllers |
$200 |
||||||||||||||||||
Callboxes: each direction per half-mile |
$8,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
Kiosks |
$4,200 |
||||||||||||||||||
TRAVELER INFORMATION @ ROADSIDE/SITE |
$31,900 |
22% |
$7,018 |
$24,882 |
27% |
$8,613 |
$23,287 |
27% |
$8,613 |
$23,287 |
39% |
$12,441 |
$19,459 |
41% |
$13,079 |
$18,821 |
46% |
$14,674 |
$17,226 |
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
|||||||||||||||||||
Portable VMS |
$600 |
31% |
$186 |
38% |
$228 |
39% |
$234 |
51% |
$306 |
45% |
$270 |
48% |
$288 |
||||||
Portable HAR |
$450 |
31% |
$140 |
38% |
$171 |
39% |
$176 |
51% |
$230 |
45% |
$203 |
48% |
$216 |
||||||
Special Pickup Trucks (w. Dyn. Route Guidance) |
$2,000 |
1% |
$20 |
2% |
$40 |
2% |
$40 |
6% |
$120 |
15% |
$300 |
18% |
$360 |
||||||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
31% |
$0 |
38% |
$0 |
39% |
$0 |
51% |
$0 |
45% |
$0 |
48% |
$0 |
||||||
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
$3,050 |
$346 |
$2,705 |
$439 |
$2,611 |
$450 |
$2,601 |
$656 |
$2,395 |
$773 |
$2,278 |
$864 |
$2,186 |
||||||
TRANSP. MGMT. CTRS |
|||||||||||||||||||
Software (various)/TMC |
$600 |
||||||||||||||||||
Computers & Hardware/TMC |
$680 |
||||||||||||||||||
Software (various)/TMC |
$220 |
||||||||||||||||||
Facilities & Communications/TMC |
$4,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
O & M Personnel/TMC |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
TRANSP. MGMT. CTRS |
$30,000 |
17% |
$5,100 |
$24,900 |
22% |
$6,600 |
$23,400 |
22% |
$6,600 |
$23,400 |
30% |
$9,000 |
$21,000 |
35% |
$10,500 |
$19,500 |
38% |
$11,400 |
$18,600 |
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
|||||||||||||||||||
Computers and Hardware |
$102 |
||||||||||||||||||
Software (various) |
$300 |
||||||||||||||||||
Facilities & Communication (stand-alone) |
$4,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
$4,402 |
0% |
$0 |
$4,402 |
22% |
$968 |
$3,434 |
21% |
$924 |
$3,478 |
28% |
$1,233 |
$3,169 |
28% |
$1,233 |
$3,169 |
38% |
$1,673 |
$2,729 |
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
|||||||||||||||||||
Computers & Hardware |
$400 |
||||||||||||||||||
Software (various) |
$70 |
||||||||||||||||||
Facilities & Communications (stand-alone |
$4,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
$4,470 |
43% |
$1,922 |
$2,548 |
66% |
$2,950 |
$1,520 |
67% |
$2,995 |
$1,475 |
75% |
$3,353 |
$1,118 |
78% |
$3,487 |
$983 |
80% |
$3,576 |
$894 |
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
|||||||||||||||||||
Cellular radio, comm. services per vehicle |
$990 |
||||||||||||||||||
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
$990 |
43% |
$426 |
$564 |
66% |
$653 |
$337 |
67% |
$663 |
$327 |
75% |
$743 |
$248 |
78% |
$772 |
$218 |
80% |
$792 |
$198 |
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
|||||||||||||||||||
Computers & Hardware |
$340 |
||||||||||||||||||
Software (various) |
$120 |
||||||||||||||||||
Facilities & Communication (stand-alone) |
$4,000 |
||||||||||||||||||
O & M Personnel |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
$4,460 |
23% |
$1,026 |
$3,434 |
30% |
$1,338 |
$3,122 |
31% |
$1,383 |
$3,077 |
36% |
$1,606 |
$2,854 |
47% |
$2,096 |
$2,364 |
54% |
$2,408 |
$2,052 |
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
|||||||||||||||||||
Cellular radio, display, etc per vehicle |
$12,600 |
16% |
$2,016 |
10% |
$1,260 |
15% |
$1,890 |
18% |
$2,268 |
30% |
$3,780 |
32% |
$4,032 |
||||||
AVI Transponder (on Signal Priority routes) [NEW] |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
||||||||||||
In-vehicle AVL equip. per vehicle [NEW] |
$0 |
23% |
$0 |
30% |
$0 |
31% |
$0 |
36% |
$0 |
47% |
$0 |
54% |
$0 |
||||||
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
$12,600 |
$2,016 |
$10,584 |
$1,260 |
$11,340 |
$1,890 |
$10,710 |
$2,268 |
$10,332 |
$3,780 |
$8,820 |
$4,032 |
$8,568 |
||||||
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYSTEM |
|||||||||||||||||||
| In Transit Mgmt Center |
|||||||||||||||||||
Central Computer System |
$3,000 |
30% |
$900 |
45% |
$1,350 |
42% |
$1,260 |
52% |
$1,560 |
63% |
$1,890 |
64% |
$1,920 |
||||||
Training & Documentation |
$80 |
30% |
$24 |
45% |
$36 |
42% |
$34 |
52% |
$42 |
63% |
$50 |
64% |
$51 |
||||||
| At ticketing site |
|||||||||||||||||||
Station Controller [DELETE] |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
Ticket Office Machine & Validator |
$2,440 |
30% |
$732 |
45% |
$1,098 |
42% |
$1,025 |
52% |
$1,269 |
63% |
$1,537 |
64% |
$1,562 |
||||||
Ticket Vending Machines |
$30,000 |
30% |
$9,000 |
45% |
$13,500 |
42% |
$12,600 |
52% |
$15,600 |
63% |
$18,900 |
64% |
$19,200 |
||||||
Turnstile [DELETE] |
$0 |
||||||||||||||||||
| On Transit Vehicles |
|||||||||||||||||||
Bus Farebox |
$14,000 |
30% |
$4,200 |
45% |
$6,300 |
42% |
$5,880 |
52% |
$7,280 |
63% |
$8,820 |
64% |
$8,960 |
||||||
Smart Card |
$6,000 |
1% |
$60 |
4% |
$240 |
6% |
$360 |
8% |
$480 |
18% |
$1,080 |
23% |
$1,380 |
||||||
Sys Engineering. Etc. [MOVED] |
|||||||||||||||||||
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYSTEM |
$55,520 |
$14,916 |
$40,604 |
$22,524 |
$32,996 |
$21,158 |
$34,362 |
$26,230 |
$29,290 |
$32,278 |
$23,242 |
$33,073 |
$22,447 |
||||||
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYSTEM |
|||||||||||||||||||
AVI Plaza Computer equipment |
$2,600 |
||||||||||||||||||
Manual AVI (per lane) |
$2,190 |
||||||||||||||||||
Automatic AVI (per lane) |
$1,050 |
||||||||||||||||||
Manual Automatic AVI (per lane) |
$1,875 |
||||||||||||||||||
AVI Dedicated (per lane) |
$480 |
||||||||||||||||||
Express AVI (per lane) |
$480 |
||||||||||||||||||
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYSTEM |
$8,675 |
36% |
$3,123 |
$5,552 |
43% |
$3,730 |
$4,945 |
73% |
$6,333 |
$2,342 |
73% |
$6,333 |
$2,342 |
81% |
$7,027 |
$1,648 |
79% |
$6,853 |
$1,822 |
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
|||||||||||||||||||
TMC, TIC, EMC, Transit MC |
$5,400 |
20% |
$1,080 |
35% |
$1,890 |
35% |
$1,890 |
42% |
$2,268 |
47% |
$2,538 |
53% |
$2,862 |
||||||
Electronic Fare Payment Sys |
$5,400 |
30% |
$3,240 |
45% |
$2,430 |
42% |
$2,268 |
52% |
$2,808 |
63% |
$3,402 |
64% |
$3,456 |
||||||
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
$10,800 |
$4,320 |
$6,480 |
$4,320 |
$6,480 |
$4,158 |
$6,642 |
$5,076 |
$5,724 |
$5,940 |
$4,860 |
$6,318 |
$4,482 |
||||||
TOTAL PER LARGE METRO AREA |
$588,792 |
$86,472 |
$502,320 |
$110,572 |
$478,220 |
$118,353 |
$470,439 |
$157,732 |
$431,060 |
$191,765 |
$397,027 |
$206,229 |
$382,563 |
||||||
Percent Capital Cost Expended: |
14.7% |
18.8% |
20.1% |
26.8% |
32.6% |
35.0% |
|||||||||||||
NUMBER OF LARGE METRO AREAS: |
75 |
||||||||||||||||||
($B) |
($B) |
($B) |
($B) |
($B) |
($B) |
||||||||||||||
TOTAL NATIONAL CAPITAL COST FOR ALL LARGE METRO AREAS |
$44.2 |
$44.2 |
$44.2 |
$44.2 |
$44.2 |
$44.2 |
|||||||||||||
TOTAL NATIONAL COST EXPENDED FOR ALL LARGE METRO AREAS |
$6.5 |
$8.3 |
$8.9 |
$11.8 |
$14.4 |
$15.5 |
|||||||||||||
TOTAL NATIONAL CAPITAL COST REMAINING FOR ALL LARGE METRO AREAS |
$37.7 |
$35.9 |
$35.3 |
$32.3 |
$29.8 |
$28.7 |
Alternative Values of Full Market Penetration
Just as it was important in the previous section to use the current market penetration estimates to reduce the estimate of still-needed investments, it is also important to determine the actual amount of needed infrastructure investment—what should be deployed. It is believed that cost estimates presented thus far reflect the maximum amount of deployment or what couldbe deployed (based on the current definitions of the metropolitan ITS infrastructure). To show how the level of full deployment might affect the estimate of investment needs, a simple parametric analysis of the values for full market penetration was performed for the initial working paper. A similar parametric analysis has been performed for this report. This analysis was carried out for the generic large metropolitan area using four different constant values for all cost elements for the percent that the “should” deployment levels might be of the “could” level. The four values are 33%, 50%, 67%, and 80%. The lower parametric value of 33% was added to the 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005 analyses to broaden the range of possible “should” levels.
The approach for calculating the results for these various levels is to start with information in table 1, and then add the appropriate constant value for the “should” level.
It can be shown algebraically that as long as the percent for the “should” level is larger than the largest value for the 2005 percent deployment shown in table 1 (this value is 80%), then the calculations for estimating the remaining costs for alternative values of full market penetration can be carried out at the aggregate level. For the four “should” levels, none can be carried out at the aggregate level because at these deployment levels we need to account for instances where ITS expenditures to date are greater than the “should” level capital cost. To not account for these “over expenditures” would misrepresent the investment needed to reach the “should” level.
Simplified versions of this calculation have been carried out using only the group level or major ITS cost elements with the “should” case set to 80%, 67%, 50%, and 33% of the could case. The results are shown in tables 3, 4, 5, and 6, respectively. The expenditures through 2005 are the cost element group level values from table 1. By carrying out the calculations and summing the columns, it can be seen that the total investment needed is $471 million at 80%, $394 million at 67%, $294 million at 50% and $194 million at 33% for the generic large area instead of $589 million. Furthermore, taking into account that $206 million has already been deployed through 2005, only $265 million, $190 million, $100 million, and $33 million is remaining, respectively. The results of the parametric analysis are summarized in table 7 and figure 1.
Table 3
Effect of Setting Full Deployment at 80% of "Could" Case for Generic Large Areas
Major ITS Cost Elements |
Capital Cost for Could Case ($K) |
Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 ($K) |
Should Case at 33% of Could Case ($K) |
Should Case - 2005 Expenditure ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
$203,535 |
$36,843 |
$162,828 |
$125,985 |
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
$44,640 |
$16,295 |
$35,712 |
$19,417 |
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
$37,500 |
$19,875 |
$30,000 |
$10,125 |
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
$106,000 |
$37,100 |
$84,800 |
$47,700 |
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
$13,750 |
$7,288 |
$11,000 |
$3,712 |
Freeway Management @ Roadside |
$16,500 |
$3,165 |
$13,200 |
$10,035 |
Traveler Information @ Roadside |
$31,900 |
$14,674 |
$25,520 |
$10,846 |
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
$3,050 |
$864 |
$2,044 |
$1,576 |
TRANSPORTATION MGMT CENTERS |
$30,000 |
$11,400 |
$24,000 |
$12,600 |
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
$4,402 |
$1,673 |
$3,522 |
$1,849 |
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
$4,470 |
$3,576 |
$3,576 |
$0 |
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
$990 |
$792 |
$792 |
$0 |
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
$4,460 |
$2,408 |
$3,568 |
$1,160 |
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
$12,600 |
$4,032 |
$10,080 |
$6,048 |
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYS |
$55,520 |
$33,073 |
$44,416 |
$11,343 |
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYS |
$8,675 |
$6,853 |
$6,940 |
$87 |
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
$10,800 |
$6,318 |
$8,640 |
$2,322 |
TOTAL PER METRO AREA |
$588,792 |
$206,229 |
$471,034 |
$264,805 |
Derived Percentage of Full Deployment Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 |
35.0% |
Table 4
Effect of Setting Full Deployment at 67% of "Could" Case for Generic Large Areas
Major ITS Cost Elements |
Capital Cost for Could Case ($K) |
Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 ($K) |
Should Case at 33% of Could Case ($K) |
Should Case - 2005 Expenditure ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
$203,535 |
$36,843 |
$136,368 |
$99,525 |
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
$44,640 |
$16,295 |
$29,909 |
$13,614 |
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
$37,500 |
$19,875 |
$25,125 |
$5,250 |
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
$106,000 |
$37,100 |
$71,020 |
$33,920 |
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
$13,750 |
$7,288 |
$9,213 |
$1,925 |
Freeway Management @ Roadside |
$16,500 |
$3,165 |
$11,055 |
$7,890 |
Traveler Information @ Roadside |
$31,900 |
$14,674 |
$21,373 |
$6,699 |
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
$3,050 |
$864 |
$2,044 |
$1,180 |
TRANSPORTATION MGMT CENTERS |
$30,000 |
$11,400 |
$20,100 |
$8,700 |
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
$4,402 |
$1,673 |
$2,949 |
$1,276 |
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
$4,470 |
$3,576 |
$2,995 |
|
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
$990 |
$792 |
$663 |
|
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
$4,460 |
$2,408 |
$2,988 |
$580 |
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
$12,600 |
$4,032 |
$8,442 |
$4,410 |
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYS |
$55,520 |
$33,073 |
$37,198 |
$4,125 |
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYS |
$8,675 |
$6,853 |
$5,812 |
|
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
$10,800 |
$6,318 |
$7,236 |
$918 |
TOTAL PER METRO AREA |
$588,792 |
$206,229 |
$394,491 |
$190,012 |
Derived Percentage of Full Deployment Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 |
35.0% |
Table 5
Effect of Setting Full Deployment at 50% of "Could" Case for Generic Large Areas
Major ITS Cost Elements |
Capital Cost for Could Case ($K) |
Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 ($K) |
Should Case at 33% of Could Case ($K) |
Should Case - 2005 Expenditure ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
$203,535 |
$36,843 |
$101,768 |
$64,925 |
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
$44,640 |
$16,295 |
$22,320 |
$6,025 |
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
$37,500 |
$19,875 |
$18,750 |
|
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
$106,000 |
$37,100 |
$53,000 |
$15,900 |
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
$13,750 |
$7,288 |
$6,875 |
|
Freeway Management @ Roadside |
$16,500 |
$3,165 |
$8,250 |
$5,085 |
Traveler Information @ Roadside |
$31,900 |
$14,674 |
$15,950 |
$1,276 |
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
$3,050 |
$864 |
$1,525 |
$661 |
TRANSPORTATION MGMT CENTERS |
$30,000 |
$11,400 |
$15,000 |
$3,600 |
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
$4,402 |
$1,673 |
$2,201 |
$528 |
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
$4,470 |
$3,576 |
$2,235 |
|
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
$990 |
$792 |
$495 |
|
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
$4,460 |
$2,408 |
$2,230 |
|
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
$12,600 |
$4,032 |
$6,300 |
$2,268 |
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYS |
$55,520 |
$33,073 |
$27,760 |
|
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYS |
$8,675 |
$6,853 |
$4,338 |
|
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
$10,800 |
$6,318 |
$5,400 |
|
TOTAL PER METRO AREA |
$588,792 |
$206,229 |
$294,396 |
$100,268 |
Derived Percentage of Full Deployment Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 |
35.0% |
Table 6
Effect of Setting Full Deployment at 33% of "Could" Case for Generic Large Areas
Major ITS Cost Elements |
Capital Cost for Could Case ($K) |
Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 ($K) |
Should Case at 33% of Could Case ($K) |
Should Case - 2005 Expenditure ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SURVEILLANCE - ARTERIALS |
$203,535 |
$36,843 |
$67,167 |
$30,324 |
SURVEILLANCE - FREEWAYS |
$44,640 |
$16,295 |
$14,731 |
|
COMMUNICATION - ARTERIALS |
$37,500 |
$19,875 |
$12,375 |
|
COMMUNICATION - FREEWAYS |
$106,000 |
$37,100 |
$34,980 |
|
TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL |
$13,750 |
$7,288 |
$4,538 |
|
Freeway Management @ Roadside |
$16,500 |
$3,165 |
$5,445 |
$2,280 |
Traveler Information @ Roadside |
$31,900 |
$14,674 |
$10,527 |
|
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT |
$3,050 |
$864 |
$1,007 |
$143 |
TRANSPORTATION MGMT CENTERS |
$30,000 |
$11,400 |
$9,900 |
|
TRAVELER INFORMATION CENTER |
$4,402 |
$1,673 |
$1,453 |
|
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER |
$4,470 |
$3,576 |
$1,475 |
|
EMERGENCY SERVICES EQUIPMENT |
$990 |
$792 |
$327 |
|
TRANSIT MANAGEMENT CENTER |
$4,460 |
$2,408 |
$1,472 |
|
TRANSIT VEHICLE INTERFACES |
$12,600 |
$4,032 |
$4,158 |
$126 |
ELECTRONIC FARE PAYMENT SYS |
$55,520 |
$33,073 |
$18,322 |
|
ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION SYS |
$8,675 |
$6,853 |
$2,863 |
|
SYS DESIGN & INTEGRATION |
$10,800 |
$6,318 |
$3,564 |
|
TOTAL PER METRO AREA |
$588,792 |
$206,229 |
$194,301 |
$32,872 |
Derived Percentage of Full Deployment Capital Cost Expended Through 2005 |
35.0% |
Table 7
Parametric Analysis of Changing From the "Could" Case Full Deployment Level to Various "Should" Cases
For the Generic Large Areas
Capital Cost for "Could" Case Full Deployment ($M) |
% Deployed Through 2005 |
Capital Costs Through 2005 ($M) |
Parametrically Selected "Should" Case Capital Costs as % of "Could" Case |
Capital Costs for "Should" Case Deployment ($M) |
Should Case Capital Costs - 2005 Capital Costs ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$589 |
35.0% |
$206 |
100% |
$589 |
$383 |
$589 |
35.0% |
$206 |
80% |
$471 |
$265* |
$589 |
35.0% |
$206 |
67% |
$394 |
$190* |
$589 |
35.0% |
$206 |
50% |
$294 |
$100* |
$589 |
35.0% |
$206 |
33% |
$194 |
$33* |
Note: The overall 2005 Deployment Percentage is derived in Table 1.
* Values are from tables 3, 4, 5, and 6, respectively
Figure 1: Results of Parametric Analysis of Different Levels of Full Deployment Along With
Previous Costs ($Millions)
Summary and Conclusions
Applying the 2005 deployment data provides a sixth set of data points with which to gauge the trend in ITS infrastructure deployment expenditures and to estimate the investment still to be made. The results show that progress is being made toward deployment of ITS infrastructure elements; hence, a reduction in the still-needed investment.
Table 8 shows ITS infrastructure trends from 1997 through 2005. Approximately 35% of the needed capital costs, or $206 million has been expended per large metropolitan area through 2005. This value represents an additional 20.3% increase from the 1997 expenditures of 14.7%. Accounting for expenditures through 1997, national capital costs remaining for the largest 75 metropolitan areas were estimated at $37.7 billion. The same estimate accounting for expenditures through 1999 is approximately $35.9 billion, through 2000 is approximately $35.3 billion, through 2002 is approximately $32.3 billion, and through 2004 is approximately $29.8 billion. From 1997 to 1999, this equates to capital expenditures of approximately $1 billion per year, and approximately $0.6 billion from 1999 to 2000. Capital expenditures from 2000 to 2002 are approximately $3 billion; this equates to about $1.5 billion per year—the largest annual increase to date. Capital expenditures from 2002 to 2004 are roughly $2.6 billion—the second highest increase—approximately $1.3 billion per year. From 2004 to 2005, expenditures increased approximately $1.1 billion. The estimate for annual O&M costs (see table C-4 of the initial working paper - reference 1) remains unchanged when the market penetration for the current time period is factored in.
Table 8
ITS Infrastructure Needed to Reach Full Deployment Factoring ITS Deployment Tracking Data from 1997 through 2005
|
Generic Large Area |
75 Largest Metropolitan Areas |
% Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Capital Costs without Considering Deployment Levels |
$589M |
$44.2B |
N/A |
Capital Costs with 1997 Deployment Levels |
$502M |
$37.7B |
-14.7% |
Capital Costs with 1999 Deployment Levels |
$478M |
$35.9B |
-18.8% |
Capital Costs with 2000 Deployment Levels |
$470M |
$35.3B |
-20.1% |
Capital Costs with 2002 Deployment Levels |
$431M |
$32.3B |
-26.8% |
Capital Costs with 2004 Deployment Levels |
$397M |
$29.8B |
-32.6% |
Capital Costs with 2005 Deployment Levels |
$383M |
$28.7B |
-35.0% |
Annual O&M Costs Unchanged by 2004 Deployment Levels |
$58M |
$4.3B |
N/A |
Note: Numbers are rounded
The overall investment in ITS over the past eight years can be summarized as follows:
- For a generic large metropolitan area, the capital cost expended through 1997 is estimated at $86 million and at $206 million through 2005
- For a generic large metropolitan area, this equates to an investment of approximately $120 million or $15 million per year
- For the 75 largest metropolitan areas, the capital cost expended through 1997 is estimated at $6.5 billion and at $15.5 billion through 2005
- For the 75 largest metropolitan areas, this equates to an investment of approximately $9 billion or $1.1 billion per year
To investigate how the level of deployment might affect the estimate of investment needs, a parametric analysis similar to that performed in the initial working paper was performed for the generic large metropolitan area. This analysis was performed for four different constant values—33%, 50%, 67%, and 80%—with the constant values each representing the percent that the “should” deployment levels might be of the “could” (full deployment) level. The 100% level was defined as the “could” case, while the lower levels were defined as possible “should” cases. The lower value of 33% was included in this analysis to broaden the range of possible “should” cases.
Using a “should” case of 67% of the “could” case, the generic large area would need only $394 million, instead of $589 million for ITS infrastructure deployment. Furthermore, taking into account that $206 million has already been deployed through 2005, only $190 million remains for the still-needed investment. Making estimates of the investment needed at the national level depends quite heavily on the values estimated for the “should” case and base year deployment levels. These values will vary, not only by cost element, but by the specific transportation needs and network characteristics associated with each metropolitan area.
[1] Cheslow, Melvyn, Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Update to the FHWA 1995 Report, FHWA, September 1999.
[2] Cheslow, Melvyn, and Staples, Barbara, Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Update to the FHWA 1995 Report, FHWA, August 2000.
[3] Cheslow, Melvyn, and Staples, Barbara, Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Update to the FHWA 1995 Report, 2 nd Revision, FHWA-OP-01-147, July 2001.
[4] Cheslow, Melvyn, and Staples, Barbara, Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Updated with 2002 Deployment Data, 3 rd Revision, FHWA-OP-03-178, O ctober 2003.
[5] Staples, Barbara, Working Paper National Costs of the Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: Updated with 2004 Deployment Data, 4 th Revision, FHWA-OP-05-xxx, O ctober 2005
[6] Office of Traffic Management and Intelligent Transportation Systems (HTV-10), Cost Estimate and Assumptions for the Core Infrastructure, FHWA, June 1995. The ITS Infrastructure was called the Core Infrastructure in 1995.
[7] Gordon, Steve, and Trombly, Jeffrey, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure in the USA: FY 1997 Results, Report FHWA-JPO-99-001, September 1998.
[8] Gordon, Steve, and Trombly, Jeffrey, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure in the USA: FY99 Results, Report FHWA-OP-00-016, May 2000.
[9] Gordon, Steve, and Trombly, Jeffrey, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure in the USA: FY2000 Results, Report FHWA-OP-01-136, July 2001.
[10] Gordon, Steve, and Trombly, Jeffrey, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure in the USA: FY2002 Results, Report FHWA-OP-03-xxx, August 2003.
[11] Gordon, Steve, Trombly, Jeffrey, and Noltenius, Juan, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure in the USA: FY2004 Results, July 2005
[12] Gordon, Steve, Trombly, Jeffrey, and Noltenius, Juan, Tracking the Deployment of the Integrated Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure in the USA: FY2005 Results, [to be published in 2006].
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